It’s the College Football Playoffs season, kicking off with more teams than ever before. This season marks the debut of the expanded 12-team playoff which was agreed upon in 2022. The team features five spots reserved for conference championship teams, with the four champions ranked highest by the Playoff Committee earning first-round byes. The fifth highest-ranked champion earns a guaranteed spot on the bracket, seeded at 12 if they are ranked outside of the top 12. With that, let’s look at each team and assess their performances throughout the season.
The first seed is the Big 10 champion Oregon Ducks. The Ducks are the only remaining undefeated team at the FBS level, having won all 13 games they played, including the conference championship. With Heisman contender Dillon Gabriel at the helm, Oregon has looked like one of the most dominant teams in college football. All of this has come in Oregon’s first year in the Big 10 conference after exiting the Pac-12 in the offseason. Gabriel has the most passing yards of any starting quarterback in the playoffs, sitting at eighth overall on the FBS level. He is also tied with Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck for the eighth most passing touchdowns over their 13 games. Oregon has beaten three teams currently in the playoff field, being Penn State, Ohio State and Boise State. These three games comprised nearly all of the one score games Oregon played this season, with the one other coming in a 16-13 win over Wisconsin. Oregon kept the top spot on the AP Top 25 poll for the last seven games, earning every first-place vote in six of those weeks. For most of the college football season, there has been almost no debate that the Oregon Ducks are the most powerful team in college football.
The second seed is the champion of the Southeastern Conference (SEC), the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia started the year ranked at number one on the AP Poll, and held that spot until week three, in which they played a close game against Kentucky, winning 13-12. They followed this concerning game with a 41-34 loss against Alabama, who was ranked number four at the time. Georgia played to a 28-0 deficit in the first half, raising questions about their offensive performance, especially quarterback Carson Beck. Since that loss, Beck has worked his way to ninth in the FBS for passing yards and is tied with Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel for the eighth most passing touchdowns in the country. The Bulldogs played three games against teams in the playoffs, winning two of them by two scores. They played two games against the Texas Longhorns, winning one in the regular season 30-15 and the SEC championship against them 22-19. The one other win against a playoff team was a 31-17 win at home against Tennessee. They played two other games against ranked teams and lost both, including the aforementioned 41-34 loss to Alabama and a 28-10 loss to Ole Miss. Georgia has had many ups and downs over the season, but enter the playoffs as a legitimate contender for the national championship.
The third seed and one of the most surprising stories in college football is the Mountain West Champion Boise State Broncos. Boise State only lost one game, a week two matchup against #1 Oregon that came down to a last-second field goal. Much of their production can be attributed to their running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty leads the FBS level in rushing yards, with 2,497 on the season. This nearly doubles second place, being UNC’s Omarion Hampton with 1,660. Jeanty is second in the Heisman odds, behind only Colorado two-way cornerback and wide receiver Travis Hunter. Jeanty also sits at fourth all-time in rushing yards in a single season, and is 131 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders’ record set in 1988. Jeanty is averaging around 193 yards per game, and only has two games in which he rushed for less than the required 131 yards. Jeanty is also tied with Army quarterback Bryson Daily for the most touchdowns, though Daily’s season ended last week with an All-American Conference Championship. It is expected that Boise State will be leaning on their dominant rusher to make a run deep into the playoffs.
The fourth seed and the last first round bye went to the Arizona State Sun Devils, who dominantly won the Big 12 championship against Iowa State 45-19. They won that game without star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who only needed 24 more yards to break into the top 10 for receiving yards. The Sun Devils started off their season rough, with losses to Texas Tech and Cincinnati killing any optimism fans had. It took a two-score victory over then-ranked Kansas State in week 12 for Arizona State to even break the top 25, and wins against BYU and Arizona put them into the Big 12 championship. Arizona went from unranked to earning a first round bye in just over three weeks. This is partially due to a dynamic rushing game led by star running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has 1,568 rushing yards on the season, the fifth most of any player at the FBS level. Skattebo won the AP Player of the Week in week 15 for his performance against Iowa State and has entered the Heisman conversation as a low-odds pick. The Sun Devils have shown their ability to beat strong teams, and are a surprise contender to take home the Championship.
The final conference champion, given the number 12 seed, is the Atlantic Coast Conference champion the Clemson Tigers. An early blowout loss to Georgia hurt the Tigers’ season right off the bat, but bounce-back wins and a mostly favorable conference schedule helped the Tigers get back on track. A 33-21 loss to Louisville in week 10 put the rest of Clemson’s season into the hands of the Miami Hurricanes. If Miami won out the rest of their favorable schedule, they would be in the ACC championship and Clemson would be out. Miami needed to lose two games for Clemson to have a shot. Those two losses came at the hands of Georgia Tech and Syracuse, and although Clemson fell in their final game of the season, they clinched a trip to the ACC championship against SMU. They beat SMU 34-31 off of a last-second field goal, which reserved their spot in the playoffs. Led by sneaky Heisman contender Cade Klubnik, who is third in the FBS for passing touchdowns, Clemson has emerged as quite the underdog, but surprising SMU in the championship game has given the team plenty of momentum going into the playoffs.
The fifth seed went to the SEC runner-ups, the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns started the season strong, winning their first six games and taking the number one spot on the AP poll. Despite losing star quarterback Quinn Ewers to injury just over a quarter into their week three game against UTSA, backup Arch Manning led Texas to constant blowout wins against weak opponents. They continued in their winning ways until week seven, in which they played against Georgia. Georgia beat them 30-15, with quarterback Quinn Ewers being taken out of the game, not for injury but for poor performance. Ewers’ return in the second half gave the Longhorns some momentum, but such a loss left questions about whether Texas’ performance was simply due to an easy schedule. Following this loss, Texas would win out the rest of the regular season, including a 17-7 win over Texas A&M that put them in the SEC championship. The championship game was a rematch with Georgia, though this one was significantly closer. It went to overtime, though Georgia ended up winning 22-19. Thus, Texas was forced to settle with an at-large spot, playing the first round of the playoffs against Clemson. Though questions continue to be raised over which quarterback should be starting at Texas, the Longhorns look like a tough opponent to play at any round.
The sixth seed went to the Big 10 runner-up, the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State also started their season on a winning streak, lasting seven games before their first loss. That loss came at the hands of high-ranked conference opponent Ohio State, who had been projected to be one of the biggest roadblocks for Penn State all season. The loss to Ohio State put the Nittany Lions behind in the race for the Big 10 championship. A 26-25 close win against Minnesota raised questions about Penn State’s quality of play heading into the final week of the regular season. Penn State’s luck continued as Ohio State dropped by three points to their rival, Michigan, and allowed Penn State into the Big 10 championship against Oregon. A 44-7 win against Maryland that week secured the Nittany Lions’ spot. Penn State brought the game within a score in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter, but an interception thrown by quarterback Drew Allar forced the Nittany Lions into an at-large spot. Questions about Penn State raised by their trilogy of rough games continue to be asked, especially as Penn State is another team that was impacted by a relatively easy strength of schedule. Many of the teams that were expected to be good when their games were scheduled, such as USC, Washington and Wisconsin, had rough seasons and became easy opponents. Penn State will play against SMU in the first round of the playoffs.
The seventh seed went to the only independent team in the bracket, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has been unaffiliated with any conference since 1978, though they had a brief bout in the ACC in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to their independent status, they were not eligible for any conference championships and were forced to compete for an at-large spot. Luckily, they had a very good season. A 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois early in the season dampened some postseason hopes for the Irish, but since that loss they have only played in a single one-score game— a 31-24 victory over 15 ranked Louisville. The loss to Northern Illinois stands as their only one on the season, which included standout victories against a ranked Navy team and the All-American Conference champions Army. They have blown out nearly every team they’ve played, and though their schedule was relatively easy, a performance such as Notre Dame’s lends itself to plenty of momentum and optimism going into the first round. They kick off their playoff journey hosting Indiana in the first round.
The eighth seed went to a team that many thought would end up with a first round bye, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State was given a difficult schedule, but worked through it with dominant wins through the first five games. Their first loss came to Oregon, who defeated them 32-31 due to clock mismanagement at the end of the fourth quarter. In the next four games, Ohio State defeated two more teams ranked in the top five, being Penn State and Indiana. Heading into week 14, they only needed to beat their rivals, Michigan, to book a spot in the Big 10 championship. A field goal within the last minute of the game launched Michigan over the Buckeyes, with Ohio State falling 13-10 and missing out on the Big 10 title. Though they were still likely to land a playoff spot, the fact that a team that was in talks for being most likely to win the national championship missed their conference championship game was surprising. The Buckeyes will start the playoffs against Tennessee, with the winner of that game going on to play Oregon. Ohio State will be looking to trample Tennessee and get their revenge over Oregon for a chance to play in the national championship, but the loss against Michigan has many asking questions about Ohio State’s potential to take it all the way.
The ninth seed went to a consistently solid team, the Tennessee Volunteers. The Volunteers spent much of their season flying under the radar beating up on worse teams, but entered their week six matchup against Arkansas ranked in the top five. They fell 19-14 against Arkansas, which raised questions about the Volunteers, especially as they were staring down a matchup against a top 10 ranked Alabama team. Tennessee defeated Alabama and put themselves back in the national conversation. The rest of their schedule seemed relatively simple outside of a matchup against Georgia in week 12, which they lost. They won games they were expected to for the rest of the season, and although they never had a reasonable chance of making the SEC title game, their wins were enough to give them an at-large spot. Despite their lack of quality on the schedule, they have been making waves in the rushing game, with running back Dylan Sampson having the fourth most rushing touchdowns on the year at 22. He scored at least one touchdown in every game he has played except for his final one against Vanderbilt. He is expected to be a large part of the Volunteers’ offense moving into the playoffs as they start their run against Ohio State.
The tenth seed went to the Indiana Hoosiers, who have played their way to the first eleven win season in program history. Their only loss came in a 38-15 blowout to Ohio State in week 13. This is the first time since the 1967 season that the Hoosiers have won even nine games. In addition, the Hoosiers broke their program record for longest win streak, winning their first 10 games. Indiana, previously one of the the Big 10’s easiest opponents, has beaten some typically excellent teams, including Washington, Michigan and UCLA. Though their loss against the Buckeyes raises some questions about their ability to play against ranked teams, the Hoosiers will be hoping to pull off another upset against Notre Dame in the first round of the playoffs.
In the final at-large spot is the ACC runner-up, the SMU Mustangs. In their first year in the ACC, the Mustangs completed an undefeated conference regular season, with their only loss coming in a non-conference game against BYU. They had clinched their spot in the ACC championship game ahead of week 14, where Miami’s loss confirmed their opponent to be Clemson. SMU took a 24-7 deficit at halftime, before a fourth quarter comeback tied the game at 31-31. A last-second field goal from Clemson’s Nolan Hauser put SMU’s playoff hopes in jeopardy. Going into selection day, all eyes were on SMU. The choice was between SMU and Alabama, who was ranked at the eleventh seed in the last poll before selection day. SMU’s biggest accomplishments were wins against ranked teams Louisville and Pitt, while Alabama had three wins against ranked teams: Georgia, Missouri and LSU. Alabama also had a more difficult schedule than SMU, and thus they ended up with more losses. In the end, Alabama’s embarrassing losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma proved enough for the playoff committee to give SMU the playoff berth. Questions have been asked about the Mustangs’ strength as a team, as neither of the ranked teams they beat remained ranked at the end of the season. SMU will be hoping to destroy that narrative as they play the first round of the playoffs against Penn State.
The expanded College Football Playoff format has allowed more teams into the playoff, and with it the potential for many more upsets. Every team currently in the playoffs has a path to the national championship and a chance to win it all. All that’s left to do is wait and see for the first round to kick off with Indiana vs. Notre Dame on Dec 20.
